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气候变化专门委员会报告:将气候变暖控制在1
2018-10-11 17:45 (点击数:次)

  Society would have to enact “unprecedented” changes to how it consumes energy, travels and builds to meet a lower global warming target or it risks increases in heat waves, flood-causing storms and the chances of drought in some regions as well as the loss of species, a U.N. report said on Monday.

  周一,联合国发表的一份报告显示,我们的社会必须在消耗能源,旅行和建设方面采取“前所未有”的变革以满足全球气候变暖的目标(温度上升控制在1.5摄氏度以下),否则可能会增加热浪,引发洪水的风暴,某些地区的干旱以及物种灭绝的风险。

  Keeping the Earth’s temperature rise to only 1.5 degrees Celsius rather than the 2C target agreed to at the Paris Agreement talks in 2015, would have “clear benefits to people and natural ecosystems,” the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said on Monday in a statement announcing the report’s release.

  联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)周一在报告声明中表示,保持地球温度上升低于1.5摄氏度,将对人类和自然生态系统有“明显的好处”。这修改了此前2015年巴黎协议谈判达成的2摄氏度的目标。

  The IPCC report said at the current rate of warming, the world’s temperatures would likely reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052 after an increase of 1C above pre-industrial levels since the mid-1800s.

  IPCC报告称,在目前的气候变暖速度下,世界气温的上升可能会在2030年至2052年之间达到1.5摄氏度,此前,自19世纪中叶以来的工业化前期,全球气候已经升高了1摄氏度。

  Keeping the 1.5C target would keep the global sea level rise 0.1 meter (3.9 inches) lower by 2100 than a 2C target, the report states. That could reduce flooding and give the people that inhabit the world’s coasts, islands and river deltas time to adapt to climate change.

  报告指出,保持1.5摄氏度(而不是2摄氏度)的目标将使全球海平面在2100年前上升的高度减少0.1米。这可以减少洪水,让居住在世界各地海岸,岛屿和河流三角洲的人们有时间适应气候变化。

  The lower target would also reduce species loss and extinction and the impact on terrestrial, freshwater and coastal ecosystems, the report said.

  报告称,1.5摄氏度的目标还将减少物种减少和灭绝以及对陆地,淡水和沿海生态系统的影响。

  “There were doubts if we would be able to differentiate impacts set at 1.5C and that came so clearly. Even the scientists were surprised to see how much science was already there and how much they could really differentiate and how great are the benefits of limiting global warming at 1.5 compared to 2,” Thelma Krug, vice-chair of the IPCC, told Reuters in an interview.

  “有人怀疑1.5摄氏度的影响是否会那么明显,事实证明是,这种影响已经非常明显。甚至连科学家也惊讶于已知的庞大科学数据、能够认识到的变化以及将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度(而不是2摄氏度)的巨大好处。”IPCC副主席塞尔玛·克鲁格告诉路透社。

  “And now more than ever we know that every bit of warming matters,” Krug said.

  “现在我们比以往任何时候都清楚,气候变暖仅一点点也影响重大,”克鲁格说。

  The IPCC met last week in Incheon, South Korea to finalize the report, prepared at the request of governments in 2015 to assess the feasibility and importance of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

  IPCC于上周在韩国仁川召开会议,最终确定了该报告,该报告是应政府的要求于2015年编制的,旨在评估将全球变暖限制在1.5摄氏度的可行性和重要性。

  The report is seen as the main scientific guide for government policymakers on how to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement during the Katowice Climate Change Conference in Poland in December.

  该报告被视为政府决策者在今年12月将在波兰举行的卡托维兹气候变化会议上就如何贯彻实施2015年巴黎协定的主要科学指南。

  To contain warming at 1.5C, man-made global net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions would need to fall by about 45 percent by 2030 from 2010 levels and reach “net zero” by mid-century. Any additional emissions would require removing CO2 from the air.

  为了控制1.5摄氏度的气候变暖,人为的全球净二氧化碳(CO2)排放量需要在2030年之前从2010年的水平下降约45%,并在本世纪中叶达到“净零”。任何额外的排放都需要去除掉二氧化碳。

  The report summary said renewable energy would need to supply 70 percent to 85 percent of electricity by 2050 to stay within a 1.5C limit, compared with about 25 percent now.

  该报告摘要称,到2050年,可再生能源将需要提供70%至85%的电力,而现在该数字约为25%。

  Using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, the share of gas-fired power would need to be cut to 8 percent and coal to under 2 percent. There was no mention of oil in this context in the summary.

  使用碳捕集与封存(CCS)技术,燃气发电的份额需要降低到8%,煤炭需要降到2%以下。在摘要中没有提到石油能源。

  If the average global temperature temporarily exceeded 1.5C, additional carbon removal techniques would be required to return warming to below 1.5C by 2100.

  如果全球平均温度暂时超过1.5摄氏度,则需要额外的碳去除技术,以便在2100年之前将温度恢复到1.5摄氏度以下。

  But the report said the efficacy of measures, such as planting forests, bioenergy use or capturing and storing CO2, were unproven at a large scale and carried some risks.

  但该报告称,诸如种植森林,使用生物能源或捕获和储存二氧化碳等措施的有效性尚未得到大规模证实,而且这些措施存在一些风险。

  But the effects of not meeting the 1.5C target would mean huge changes to the world. The lower level would mean the Arctic Ocean would be free of sea ice in summer only once per century not at least once a decade under the higher target. Coral reefs would decline by a still unsustainable 70 percent to 90 percent instead of being virtually wiped out under the higher increase.

  达不到1.5摄氏度的目标将意味着世界会发生巨大变化。1.5摄氏度的升温意味着北冰洋在夏季只会出现每个世纪一次没有海冰,而2摄氏度的升温则意味着十年一次没有海冰。珊瑚礁的数量仍将下降70%至90%,这仍然是不可持续,但2摄氏度的升温则会使珊瑚礁完全消失。

  “The report shows that we only have the slimmest of opportunities remaining to avoid unthinkable damage to the climate system that supports life as we know it,” said Amjad Abdulla, the IPCC board member and chief negotiator for an alliance of small island states at risk of flooding as sea levels rise.

  “报告显示,我们只剩下很小的机会避免对我们赖以生存的生态系统造成无法想象的破坏,”IPCC董事会成员兼海平面上升及洪水泛滥风险小岛国联盟首席谈判代表Amjad Abdulla说。

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